Ukusukela ngo-2025, imakethi yesulfure yasekhaya ifumene ukunyuka kwamaxabiso abukhali, kunye namaxabiso onyuka ukusuka malunga ne-1,500 ye-yuan/toni ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-3,800 ye-yuan/toni ngoku, ukonyuka okungaphezulu kwe-100%, ukufikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu elitsha kwiminyaka yakutshanje. Njengemathiriyeli ekrwada yeekhemikhali, ukunyuka kwexabiso lesulfure kube nefuthe ngokuthe ngqo kwikhonkco leshishini elisezantsi, kwayesulfur dioxideImarike, esebenzisa isulfure njengeyona nto iphambili, ijongene noxinzelelo lweendleko ezinkulu. Oyena mqhubi walo mjikelo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso usukela kukungalingani okumandla phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno kwimarike yesulfure yehlabathi.

Ukucutheka okuqhubekayo konikezelo lwamazwe ngamazwe kuye kwawenza mandundu umsantsa wokubonelela ngenxa yezinto ezininzi.

Unikezelo lwesulfure yehlabathi luxhomekeke kakhulu kwiimveliso ze-oyile kunye negesi. Ubonelelo lwesulfure yehlabathi lulonke ngo-2024 lwalumalunga ne-80.7 yezigidi zeetoni, kodwa unikezelo lunesivumelwano kakhulu kulo nyaka. UMbindi Mpuma ngoyena mnikezeli mkhulu wehlabathi, uthatha i-32%, kodwa izibonelelo zawo zijoliswe ikakhulu ekuboneleleni ngeemarike ezivelayo ezifana ne-Indonesia, zinciphisa ukufumaneka kwayo kwimarike yaseTshayina.

IRashiya, umthengisi omkhulu wesulfure wendabuko, wakha wabalelwa kwi-15% -20% yemveliso yehlabathi. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yengxabano yaseRashiya-Ukraine, ukuzinza kwemisebenzi yayo yokucoca kuye kwehla kakhulu, malunga ne-40% yemveliso echaphazelekayo. Ukuthunyelwa kwayo kumazwe angaphandle kwehle ukusuka malunga ne-3.7 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka phambi kuka-2022 ukuya malunga ne-1.5 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2023. Ekuqaleni kukaNovemba ka-2025, ukuvalwa kokuthumela ngaphandle kwakhutshwa, ukuthintela ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwimibutho engaphandle kwe-EU de kube sekupheleni konyaka, kunqunyulwa ngakumbi amajelo okubonelela ngamazwe ngamazwe.

Ngaphaya koko, ukwamkelwa ngokubanzi kwemithombo yamandla emitsha kukhokelele ekwehleni kokusetyenziswa kwemithombo yamandla emveli efana nepetroli kunye nedizili. Xa kudityaniswe ne-OPEC+ yamazwe avelisa i-oli ekuphumezeni isivumelwano sokunciphisa i-oyile ekrwada, ukukhula komthamo we-oyile kwihlabathi jikelele kunye negesi kuye kwadodobala, kwaye izinga lokukhula kwemveliso yesulfure lihlile kakhulu. Ngeli xesha, ezinye iindawo zokucoca kuMbindi we-Asiya ziye zanciphisa kakhulu imveliso yazo ngenxa yokugcinwa okanye ukuncipha koovimba abakhoyo, bandisa ngakumbi umsantsa wobonelelo lwehlabathi.

Imfuno yamazwe ngamazwe ikhula ngokulandelelana

Ngelixa unikezelo lusenkontileka, imfuno yamazwe ngamazwe yesulfure ibonisa ukukhula kolwakhiwo. I-Indonesia, njengommandla ophambili wemfuno eyongeziweyo, inesidingo esinamandla sesulfure kwiiprojekthi zokunyibilikisa i-nickel-cobalt (esetyenziselwa ukuveliswa kwezinto zebhetri) ziinkampani zasekhaya ezifana neTsingshan kunye neHuayou. Imfuno eyongezelelekileyo ilindeleke ukuba idlule kwi-7 yezigidi zeetoni ukusuka kwi-2025 ukuya ku-2027. Itoni enye yemveliso ye-nickel idinga iitoni ezili-10 zesulfure, iguqula kakhulu ukunikezelwa kwehlabathi.

Imfuno engqongqo kwicandelo lezolimo ikwabonelela ngenkxaso. Imfuno yehlabathi yesichumiso sephosphate izinzile ngexesha lokutyala entwasahlobo, ngelixa isulfure ithatha ukuya kuthi ga kwi-52.75% yemveliso yesichumiso sephosphate, iqhubela phambili ukubonelela kunye nokungalingani kwemfuno kwimarike yesulfure yehlabathi.

Imarike yesulfure dioxide ichatshazelwa kuthumelo lweendleko

Isulfure yeyona nto iphambili ekuvelisenisulfur dioxide. Malunga ne-60% yomthamo wemveliso yesulphur dioxide yolwelo yaseTshayina isebenzisa iinkqubo zokuvelisa isulfure. Ukuphindwa kabini kwamaxabiso esalfure kuziqhubele ngqo iindleko zemveliso.

Ujongo lweMarike: Amaxabiso aphezulu aNakekela ukutshintshwa ngexesha elifutshane

Ukujonga phambili kwi-2026, ibhalansi yokubonelela-imfuno eqinile kwimarike yesulfure ayinakwenzeka ukuba iphucule ngokusisiseko. Umthamo omtsha wemveliso yamazwe ngamazwe usemva. Abahlalutyi baqikelela ukuba, kwimeko enika ithemba, amaxabiso esalfure angadlula i-5,000 yuan/toni ngo-2026.

Ngenxa yoko, isulfur dioxideImakethi inokuqhubeka nemeko yayo ephakathi. Ngemigaqo-nkqubo engqongqo yokusingqongileyo,sulfur dioxideabavelisi abaneenzuzo kwiimodeli zoqoqosho ezijikelezayo kunye neenkqubo ezizezinye baya kufumana ukhuphiswano, kwaye ugxininiso lweshishini kulindeleke ukuba lunyuke ngakumbi. Utshintsho lwexesha elide kwipatheni yemfuno yonikezelo lwesulfure yehlabathi luya kuqhubeka nokuba nefuthe kwiindleko kunye nokhuphiswano lomhlaba wekhonkco loshishino lonke.

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